The Bitcoin halving and market cycles
Every 210,000 blocks, about every four years, the number of new bitcoins created per block is cut in half. It is the most talked-about event in crypto. Here is what it actually changes, the history, and why past cycles are a story, not a forecast.
What halves
New bitcoins enter circulation as a reward to the miners who add each block (about every 10 minutes). The reward started at 50 BTC per block in 2009 and halves every 210,000 blocks. Because blocks come at a roughly steady rate, that is about every four years. The process ends when the reward rounds down to zero, around the year 2140, with a total supply just under 21 million BTC.
Every halving so far
| Halving | Date | Block | Reward per block |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 28 Nov 2012 | 210,000 | 50 → 25 BTC |
| 2nd | 9 Jul 2016 | 420,000 | 25 → 12.5 BTC |
| 3rd | 11 May 2020 | 630,000 | 12.5 → 6.25 BTC |
| 4th | 20 Apr 2024 | 840,000 | 6.25 → 3.125 BTC |
| 5th (expected) | around spring 2028 | 1,050,000 | 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC |
The date of the next halving is an estimate from the current block speed; it is set by the block number, not by the calendar.
What it changes
After the 2024 halving about 450 new bitcoins are created per day (144 blocks × 3.125). After 2028 it will be about 225. More than 19.5 million of the 21 million coins already exist, so each halving makes the new supply a smaller share of what is traded. Miners' income per block falls by half overnight, and the least efficient miners may switch off.
Cycles: what history shows and what it does not
After each past halving, Bitcoin went on to make a new high within roughly one to one and a half years, followed by a deep fall. That pattern is why people speak of a four-year cycle. Be careful with it:
- There have been only four halvings. Four examples are far too few to measure anything with confidence.
- Each cycle also had other causes: interest rates, new buyers, exchange failures, regulation and ETFs.
- Everyone knows the date in advance, so markets can price it in early.
Use the cycle as background for risk, for example being more careful with leverage after a long rally, not as a calendar for buying or selling. ICC Terminal does not publish price predictions.
Worked example
Supply per day: 144 blocks a day × 3.125 BTC = 450 BTC since April 2024. At an illustrative price of 100,000 USD that is about 45 million USD of new coins a day; after the 2028 halving the same price means about 22.5 million USD a day. The block reward halves; the demand side is not set by any schedule.
Tools for this guide
Questions
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
At block 1,050,000, expected around spring 2028. The exact day depends on how fast blocks are found until then.
Does the price always go up after a halving?
In the four past cycles Bitcoin later made new highs, but four examples prove nothing, and each cycle had other causes. A halving is not a guarantee.
How many bitcoins are left to mine?
Less than 1.5 million of the 21 million. Because the reward keeps halving, the last fractions will take until around 2140.
Do other coins have halvings?
Some coins copied the idea with their own schedules; others, like Ethereum, have no fixed supply schedule of this kind.
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