ICC Market Mood Gauge: gold, US dollar and Bitcoin
Our own 0-100 fear and greed style score for how crowded each market is: 0 = extreme fear (traders crowded short, prices weak), 100 = extreme greed (crowded long, prices strong). Built from CFTC futures positioning and price momentum.
Gold (XAUUSD)
US dollar
Bitcoin
How the score works
Score = (COT index + momentum rank) ÷ 2. Example: gold's large speculators sit at 80 % of their 3-year range (COT index 80) and gold's 20-day gain ranks above 70 % of the last year's (momentum 70): the score is 75, greed.
Positioning comes from the weekly CFTC report (public data); momentum from the hourly statistics of our broker demo feed. The details: gold positioning today and the COT index calculator.
Questions
How is the score made?
It is the average of two numbers from 0 to 100. First, the COT index: where large speculators' net position in the futures sits in its range of the last 3 years (CFTC data). Second, momentum: where the latest 20-day price change ranks among the last year's 20-day changes. For the US dollar we use the currency futures the other way round.
Is extreme greed a sell signal?
No. Crowded positioning can last for weeks. It is a reason to be careful with new trades in the same direction and to keep stops honest, not a signal on its own.
How is this different from CNN's Fear & Greed Index?
The ICC Market Mood Gauge is our own method for gold, the dollar and Bitcoin, built only from futures positioning and price momentum. It is not related to CNN's stock index or alternative.me's crypto index.